Tensions between the United States and China are escalating: China’s rare earth export restrictions and U.S. tariffs have deepened the crisis. All eyes are now on U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, who will meet at the APEC Summit in Busan. Washington-based diplomat-scholar and geostrategist Dr. Zoltán Fehér told 24 Saat Gazetesi that Washington is entering a new and uncertain phase under President Trump’s second term. “Trump believes he can change China through negotiation, but history shows the opposite. Every Western administration in the past thirty years, from Washington to Brussels, has tried and failed. China’s conduct is systemic, not accidental,” he said.
M. FERHAT YÜKSEL
Fehér is a diplomat-scholar and geostrategist with more than twenty years of experience in foreign policy and international relations. A former Hungarian diplomat, he served as deputy ambassador and acting ambassador in Türkiye and taught international relations at Harvard, MIT, and Tufts. He currently serves as a fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub and as a professorial lecturer at George Washington University. At the Atlantic Council, he leads a research project on EU policy toward China and its implications for U.S. strategy.
A SHIFT FROM BALANCING TO DEALMAKING
Fehér notes that the global community expected President Trump to continue the containment policy toward China that began during his first term and was maintained by President Biden. “Trump’s first administration shifted America’s strategy from engagement to balancing, from cooperation to containment. That fundamentally changed the nature of U.S.–China relations,” he said.
However, the second Trump administration has not followed the same trajectory. “There’s confusion within the Chinawatcher community in Washington. We’re not entirely sure what Trump’s strategy is. Instead of a consistent containment approach, we’re seeing two competing strategies at play, one focused on balancing, the other on transactional dealmaking,” he explained.
According to Fehér, Trump’s current approach is driven by his business background. “He sees foreign policy as a series of deals—with China, with Russia, even with Iran. He wants to make ‘grand deals’ that could reshape the international order, but such ambitions often overlook the underlying structural realities of power politics,” he said.
GRAND DEALS WITH CHINA, RUSSIA, AND IRAN
Fehér described Trump’s idea of “grand deals” as an attempt to end long-standing adversarial relationships. “In Trump’s view, the U.S. could negotiate comprehensive agreements—peace with Russia by ending the war in Ukraine, economic rebalancing with China, and potentially détente with Iran,” he said. “I give President Trump a lot of credit for trying to improve these tense relationships, to find common ground even with adversarial nations. I believe the President is guided by a genuine intention to bring peace where we have war now, and cooperation where we have conflict. In Ukraine, for instance, he truly wants to stop the bloodshed.”
But the scholar remains skeptical about the outcome of these attempts. “These deals sound attractive, but they are unrealistic. With Russia, the condition is simple: end the war. Yet Moscow shows no intention of doing so. With China, the goal is to eliminate unfair economic practices, overcapacity, currency manipulation, forced technology transfer, and subsidies. These have been at the core of China’s economic model for decades. They will not change because of negotiations,” he stressed.
Fehér added that both the U.S. and the European Union “woke up” only about a decade ago to Beijing’s manipulative trade policies. “For thirty years, the West tolerated China’s unfair practices, believing that integration into the global economy would liberalize China and make it more cooperative. Instead, it produced a China with an aggressive foreign policy and what economists call the ‘China shock’—millions of jobs lost across American and European manufacturing sectors,” he said.
THE CHINA SHOCK AND AMERICAN POPULISM
Fehér links the rise of populism in the United States to the economic dislocation caused by globalization and outsourcing to China. “The China shock wiped out up to three million American jobs, mostly in the Rust Belt states. Without that, there might never have been a Trump movement, even if other factors also played a role. The working class paid the price for corporate profits,” he said.
He believes that both the Trump and Biden administrations recognized the need for strategic competition, but Trump’s second-term oscillation between balancing and dealmaking is creating instability. “Every few weeks, the White House swings between containment and compromise. That’s not sustainable,” he observed.
THE RARE EARTH MINERALS CRISIS
Fehér pointed to the growing confrontation over rare earth elements—materials vital for advanced technologies. “China controls around 70 percent of the world’s rare earth mining and processes over 90 percent of rare earths. This gives Beijing a near monopoly,” he said.
He explained that negotiations between Washington and Beijing earlier this year achieved a framework deal covering tariffs, export controls, critical minerals, and the flow of fentanyl. “Talks continued to finalize a broader deal to be signed by Presidents Trump and Xi at a summit. But as the summit approached, China abruptly imposed new export restrictions on rare earths. It was a power move, leverage in its purest form,” Fehér said.
Following China’s announcement, President Trump responded by threatening 100 percent tariffs on Chinese products. “It’s a dangerous escalation. China knows how to weaponize its resources. Whether it’s an intentional provocation or a negotiation tactic, it reignited tensions,” he warned.
Even if the summit is held and a broader deal is reached, Fehér is pessimistic about China’s implementation. He recalled the implementation issues surrounding the 2020 ‘Phase One Deal’ between Trump and China. “China never fully honored that agreement. That’s why any new broad deal is illusory. Beijing promises a lot, but its structural behavior doesn’t change,” he said.
“THE ONLY LANGUAGE CHINA UNDERSTANDS IS STRENGTH”
When asked what strategy the U.S. should adopt, Fehér was clear: “The only way to deal with Communist China is through strength, political, economic, and technological. Negotiations can help, but they alone don’t work. China only changes its behavior when under pressure,” he said.
He added that both Trump’s and Biden’s earlier approaches, containment and balancing, were more effective than transactional diplomacy. “The U.S. must leverage its strength to compel behavioral change. China’s unfair practices have deeply damaged the U.S. and European economies. Only a firm and coordinated pushback can reverse that,” he argued.
CHINA AND RUSSIA: A “NO-LIMITS PARTNERSHIP”
Fehér warned against assuming a rift between Beijing and Moscow. “I’ve heard for twenty years that China and Russia will have a falling out. It hasn’t happened. Their partnership is stronger than ever,” he said.
He recalled that Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin signed a ‘no-limits partnership’ in early 2022, weeks before Putin invaded Ukraine, symbolizing a deep geopolitical alignment. “They share the same goal — to end the U.S.-led international order and replace it with one defined by authoritarian values. They cooperate bilaterally as well as through BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and other anti-Western networks,” Fehér explained.
According to him, the idea of a “reverse Kissinger” strategy, separating Russia from China and bringing it to America’s side, is unrealistic. “It’s a beautiful theory, but impossible in practice. Both are revisionist powers. The U.S. cannot split them,” he said.
THE U.S., THE E.U., AND FAILED RAPPROCHEMENT
Fehér also discussed Europe’s attempt to reset relations with Beijing. “Earlier this year, the E.U. found itself in a difficult geopolitical position, prompting it to seek negotiations with Beijing for a potential détente. Yet China made no real concessions; it didn’t end its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine or change its unfair economic practices. Europe hoped for rapprochement, but Beijing offered nothing in return,” he said. “We had already warned this would be the case.”
He added that Washington faces the same dilemma. “Trump believes he can change China through negotiation. But history shows the opposite. Every Western administration in the past thirty years has tried and failed. China’s conduct is systemic, not accidental,” Fehér emphasized.
TÜRKİYE’S STRATEGIC BALANCE BETWEEN GREAT POWERS
Turning to Türkiye, Fehér said President Erdoğan has been maneuvering between global powers. “Ankara plays a complex game. Türkiye is a NATO ally but is increasingly engaging with China, Russia, and regional organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,” he said.
He noted that Türkiye’s pursuit of a ‘just and multipolar world’ aligns with China’s rhetoric. “Before Erdoğan visited China in September, he published an article in People’s Daily praising China’s role in promoting peace and justice. That mirrors Beijing’s own narrative,” he said.
Fehér highlighted technology as the new arena of global competition. “Technology defines the next era of geopolitics, AI, semiconductors, electric vehicles, and quantum computing. Türkiye wants to strengthen its position in innovation and has increasingly turned to China for cooperation,” he said.
He pointed out that Chinese companies, such as Huawei, play a major role in Türkiye’s telecommunications infrastructure, and that the electric-vehicle sector is another area of deepening ties. “BYD’s $1 billion investment is a clear sign of Türkiye’s growing reliance on Chinese technology. If this trend continues, Ankara could become dependent on China’s ecosystem, particularly in EVs and semiconductors,” he cautioned.
However, he emphasized the strategic risks associated with this alignment. “As U.S.–China technological rivalry intensifies, Türkiye risks being caught in the middle, a NATO member leaning toward Beijing’s tech sphere,” he warned.
A BALANCING ACT IN A DIVIDED WORLD
Fehér said Türkiye’s foreign policy reflects both pragmatism and ambition. “Every country that seeks economic growth realizes that the future lies in technology. Türkiye is no exception. But it must balance ambition with strategic caution,” he said.
He concluded by stressing that global power politics is entering an era defined not only by ideology but also by technological capacity. “China and Russia are advancing their own models of authoritarian governance. The West must respond not only militarily or diplomatically but through technological innovation and political unity,” Fehér said.
THE GRAND DEAL ILLUSION
Summarizing his position, Fehér reiterated that the U.S. cannot rely on diplomacy alone. “The idea of a grand deal with China is an illusion. The only viable path is to contain China’s rise and defend the existing international order. Negotiation without leverage leads nowhere,” he said.
He believes that the next phase of global politics will depend on whether the United States and its allies can sustain unity in the face of authoritarian revisionism. His project at the Atlantic Council explores EU policies on China and the prospects for closer transatlantic coordination. “The competition with China is not just about trade or technology; it is about values, systems, and the future of the international order. Allied cooperation is key to winning this competition,” he concluded.
Fehér emphasized that China’s long-term strategy is not limited to economic or military rivalry but represents a systemic ambition to reshape the foundations of global governance. He warned that Beijing’s deepening partnership with Russia reflects a deliberate project to replace the U.S.-led order. “Only unity and strength among democracies,” he said, “can prevent the rise of an alternative authoritarian world order led by China.”
